The first time I ran for office I realized that in Chatham, Precinct 1 always carried the election.  No matter what the issue or office, of the two co-equal parts of town, the higher number of votes always came from the area north of Old Queen Anne and Main Street.  Turnout was higher, too.

At the time, I was a freshly-minted political science grad and could see what was going on.  There are three factors that reliably predict a person’s casting a ballot.  In order of importance, they are 3) age, 2) income, and 1) education.

Well, Precinct 1 is Shore Road, North Chatham, Chathamport and Riverbay.  For the most part, old people with money and advanced degrees.  So their higher turnout made sense.  Those also tend to be indicators for being a Republican.  So during an election, even non-partisan local elections, it was clear how things were going to swing.

Hence, there may have developed a tilt in town politics (perhaps unconscious) towards the residents of the northern precinct. 

The less important the election has been perceived – meaning, the more local – the lower the turnout and, and so the greater the influence of those who actually did show up.  It would be interesting to look at town meeting attendance and makeup of town boards to see if this rule follows.

However, in last week’s election, more people from Precinct 2 showed up in force.  The voters from South Chatham and West Chatham carried the day, then (I would have mentioned the Neck, Lower Main Street and Morris Island, but most of the houses there are typically empty this time of year).

That’s not to suggest that this is more Democratic.  Rather, Precinct 2 residents, compared to Precinct 1, are younger, less affluent and (perhaps therefore) less educated.  But everything is relative.  Residents in Precinct 1 are, for example, typically younger than residents of Union Cemetery on Main Street.

As a curious aside, the three largest cemeteries in town are in Precinct 1.  Union, Seaside and People’s.  But not four — due to a few friends with young children now living there, I cannot in good conscience repeat the suggestion of another homeowner in the neighborhood that “Riverbay is a cemetery with the lights on.”

On the other hand, Precinct 2 has the dump, the sewer plant, the most-polluted estuaries in town, and by far most of the commercial areas.

Chatham is still referred to as the most conservative town on the Cape.  I’ve always had a problem with that description.  Our tax rate is low, which is mostly a legacy of Prop. 2½, but the support for affordable housing and environmental protection is much more solid than towns considered more politically or culturally diverse than ours.  Consider that Chatham gave roughly the same percentages to McCain and Obama as did Sandwich, Mashpee, Bourne and Barnstable.

Unless you are using the very purest sense of “conservative”, as in wishing to “conserve” certain positive aspects.  Or simply don’t like things to change.  Then that term would be fairly accurate.

Whichever the case, my interpretation of the election in Chatham shows there are about 1,400 hard-core Republicans and a similar number of Democrats.  So there’s parity between 2,800 voters.  With 4,800 voters motivated to show up for this presidential election, that means there might be 2,000 up for grabs.  In theory, in a similar turnout.

Any of these figures dwarf turnout at a town election (never mind a Town Meeting).  All of the most conservative people here could show up and elect and pass whatever they wanted.  Likewise, with their counterparts at the other end of the spectrum. Perhaps, to a certain degree, that has been happening.

Looking at the people who went to the polls on November 4, and knowing that only one out of every four will show up, it is unlikely they would be a representative sample.  It makes me cringe when any elected public figure in town presumes to know what the whole town believes.  As a Selectman, I might have had a good handle on those who elected me, and understood that other members of the board were elected by constituencies differing from my own.

That’s all well and good, but there’s a threat that the people we are electing are not representing the residents as a whole.  Instead, we should take advantage of the opportunity of a higher turnout at federal and state election time and to have municipal officers elected simultaneously.

This could prove to be a real advantage to the electorate and those they elect.  For example, the town’s budget cycle begins in January and ends with the annual town meeting in May.  This can result in a new Selectman coming on board just a few days after a budget has been passed that they have had no input on.  Instead, they’ll have to wait over six months to begin to be heard on the next one.  Being elected in November would mean the public’s will would be expressed within weeks, rather than dissipated over half a year.

But really, there’s no good reason not to employ better methods to encourage more people to vote in every election held in Chatham.  Other municipalities in Massachusetts hold their elections in the November.  Often, we have a special town meeting around this time anyway, so having an election somewhat coincident could be just advantageous as not.

Right now we have a Charter Review Committee, and it is their job make suggestions to improve the structure of our town government.  By law, they emerge every seven years to do their work, with their recommended changes to the charter going to the voters.  Then they expire, and we forget about them until the next time, like a gang of government cicadas.  So if something like the change of an election date is to made, it has to be discussed now – right now.

There are some reasons not to change.  Because it is different.  Because we never did it that way before.  Because we are comfortable with who shows up at town elections.  Because we are afraid of what more voters might do.  Because it is too hard.  Because, regardless of our party affiliation or the outcome of our recent election, we really are just too conservative.

Read Andy’s other columns at this blog or at The Cape Cod Chronicle.